Seven groundbreaking predictions regarding health care innovation for 2016 part I

8 January 2016

In 2013, I had the pleasure of being among the Dutch delegation representing REshape when it went to Futuremed2020, a conference held at Singularity University in the United States. I included my thoughts regarding this trip in the blogs I was writing back then. In one of these blog posts, I described seven trends in exponential technologies that were going to have a huge impact on health care. Have these trends survived the zeitgeist? And what can we expect in the Netherlands in 2016? Here, in Part I, are updates on my first three predictions.

Prediction 1: Remote diagnostics will start to catch on

The first trend I described in 2013 was the emergence of new imaging and 3D technologies for obtaining (sometimes in real time) much more accurate diagnoses. This development is still an ever-present trend along with the emergence of mobile imaging possibilities such as ultrasound linked to smartphones or tablets. I predict that this will even start catching on in 2016 and will include having trained care providers conducting ultrasounds at the homes of patients.
‘I predict that this will even start catching on in 2016 and will include having trained care providers conducting ultrasounds at the homes of patients’
In addition to this diagnostic imaging, I see another two important additions being made in 2016 within the field of image processing: smart glasses and virtual reality.

Smart glasses for wound care

‘Google Glass Enterprise’ is the follow-up to Google’s first smart glasses. Version two, however, is being aimed more at the business market. In the field of home care, for instance, these glasses could allow a specialist in the hospital to see the same real-time image as viewed by the wearer. This would provide ways to continue developing Wound Care 2.0 as demonstrated with the first version by health care innovator Hans Hoonakkers at care organization Careaz. This is just one of the many applications that might be devised, including some for other areas of health care, as the experiences of previous Google Glass pioneers Lucien Engelen or surgeon Marlies Schrijven show. 

I wonder, however, if Google Glass will ultimately be the real form factor leading to the breakthrough in Augmented Reality Glasses. There are lots of other rivals such as Microsoft Hololens and many smaller-scaled initiatives. Whatever happens, smart glasses are sure to provide many new insights in this exciting field in 2016.

Virtual Reality

I’m also expecting virtual reality to take some giant steps in 2016. Even so, I don’t see a real breakthrough yet among consumers this year. The new versions of devices similar to Oculus Rift, however, will become increasingly affordable and more attractive for developers. 

For health care, I predict that the first applications, such as what my fellow entrepreneur Jaap Maljers is doing with his Incision Academy, will really catch on in 2016. By using VR and 3D technologies, he is creating an entirely new way of teaching surgeons – a method that can be applied not only in Western countries but also in third-world countries. Just imagine how much this could improve health care there!

Prediction 2: prescribing health apps that are more than just gadgets 

The second trend was ‘prescribing apps in the field of health care’. I wasn’t really spot on with this prediction - well, at least not yet. Even though tons of apps have been developed for use in health care, most of them (let’s be honest) are consumer apps that haven’t really been integrated into health care processes. They’re mainly for keeping track of your health history or finding information about a disease.

Even so, physicians are actually prescribing apps. I only thought this would happen sooner. 

Good examples of this are the Behandelpad and Physitrack apps which are fortunately catching on in the Netherlands. I’ve also noticed that more and more hospitals and health care organizations such as our health care partners, Zuidzorg and St. Anna, are working together to arrive at the real integration of apps into health care processes. Professionals at these care providers are prescribing cContact for remote health care and cVitals for telemonitoring and are using them in the treatment process. For a nice recent example demonstrating how COPD patients are avoiding hospital admissions, see the video (Dutch speaking):


I predict more of these kinds of examples for 2016. This year will also bring more consumer apps linked to health care like CliniCloud. This app allows users to connect a stethoscope or thermometer to their iPhone to listen to their lungs or record their temperature. And if you don’t trust the data, the app lets you share it on demand with a physician during a live video consult.

Prediction 3: the use of sensors and wearables becomes common practice

The emergence of sensors and wearables is a trend that is now being applied. These products are constantly being improved as their technology becomes more affordable. Despite all this potential, however, I think we aren’t there yet. That’s why I’m predicting three major debates in 2016 concerning the introduction of these technologies:

1) Which wearables are reliable?

It’s very hard for care providers and consumers to ‘separate the wheat from the chaff’. Along with the University Medical Center Utrecht, we have set up a validation procedure for wearables in which Martine Breteler, a PhD student, is conducting research into the reliability of wearables including the use of them for elderly or vulnerable people. 

Without giving the findings away yet, I can still tell you that there’s a big difference among them, and many of them – usually beautifully presented by their companies – can’t be used by professional health care providers. And they wouldn’t be suitable at all for vulnerable people. This makes validation and research crucial. For more information, see Martine's blog post about research into wearables and patient safety.

2) Who will own this personal data?

The second discussion that I foresee will be about the ownership of the data. Who will the owner be? And what will happen to this personal data? More and more companies (big and small) see data as an important part of their earning model. As such, there’s nothing wrong with this. But what happens when a company isn’t transparent in communicating its privacy policy and you happen to be the user who hasn’t been fully informed of this? Unfortunately, this is often the case: a proper privacy policy or transparency regarding the company’s earning model is usually lacking. 

I believe it is essential to have a clearly stated policy in this regard. At FocusCura we also take the view that this data should be shared with patients themselves. (More about this in a future blog) 

3) How will we use these gadgets properly in the provision of health care?

An app or wearable is not yet ‘the next generation of health care’. As interesting as the latest wearables, high-tech garments or tricorder are, they’re all still gadgets. Not until we can really incorporate these gadgets into new processes of health care can we really change the provision of health care. And to do this, not only will technology and the organization of health care providers have to make changes in their purchasing policies, but so will health insurance companies that finance health care. After all, this will mean that the biggest factor in remuneration won’t be the time spent in the consulting room anymore but the remote care provided via smart algorithms or even the prevention of hospital visits or admissions.

‘One of my important predictions is that the first insurance company will announce during 2016 that it will be purchasing these new health care processes on a large scale' One of my important predictions is that the first insurance company will announce during 2016 that it will be purchasing these new health care processes on a large scale. But that’s only the beginning…

OK, this is the end of Part I. In Part II of ‘Seven groundbreaking predictions regarding health care innovation for 2016’, I’ll be making another four predictions about subjects like artificial intelligence, robots and smart personal alarm systems. Until then, I’d be interested in knowing whether you agree with these predictions or not - or whether you’d have anything else to share about them. 

If you do, I’d be pleased to hear from you via Twitter or LinkedIn

For now, I wish you a healthy and innovative 2016!

Curious about part 2? Read here 'Seven predictions for the most disruptive healthcare innovations in 2016, part 2'.